Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) and guard Jaylen Brown (7) react after a play against the Cleveland Cavaliers. David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

NBA best bets: Expert picks for Thunder vs. Mavericks, Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated 5/10/24

There are a pair of massive Game 3s on the NBA's Saturday slate and our betting analyst has an expert pick for each game — Thunder vs. Mavericks and Celtics vs. Cavaliers.

So, rather than waste more time on an introduction, let's get right to the NBA best bets today.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Saturday, May 11, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Under 218 (BetMGM)

By Michael Fiddle

The Thunder and Mavericks go back to Dallas tied at one, mean Game 3 is a high-pressure, desperation environment for both teams. In Game 2, the Mavericks dominated, but in big part due to shooting variance.

P.J. Washington shot 7-of-10 from deep, Luka Doncic made his first three 3s, and even though the Thunder battled, the Mavericks continued to hit big shots. I expect Oklahoma City to make defensive adjustments to run the Mavericks a bit off the line. I hope it becomes the "force only Doncic to beat us" version of the Mavericks because that is a slow, half-court set. I can tell this is developing sharp spot and will likely drop to about 216.5 at close. Grab it at 217.5 or above and let's aim to be a full point ahead of the market for one unit of exposure.

Pick: Under 218

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Saturday, May 11, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3PM (DraftKings)

By Michael Fiddle

Jayson Tatum gets a bad rap for appearing "soft." That narrative has popped back up after a Game 2 loss and Tatum's ensuing press conference The truth is, he is an absolute superstar and has shown it in many times in crucial playoff games.

Tatum has two 50+ point playoff games in critical series junctures — Game 6 down 3-2 against Milwaukee and Game 7 against Philadelphia. Game 3 may be the biggest test the Celtics face to get to the Finals, so I expect the ball in Tatum's hands and for him to look for his shot early and often. As a result, he should get more volume than he's seen in the past few games. His 3s line is discounted from his regular-season price, although he's likely to play even more minutes. Grab this now.